Ericsson is one of many companies, big and small, that hope to cash in on a coming boom in wireless transmission of data. BellSouth, which has bet $300 million on building a radio network with RAM Mobile Data, estimates a market of as many as 12 million potential customers by the year 2000. IBM and Motorola have opened their Ardis national data network, long a private tool for large corporations, to public use. IBM has also teamed up with cellular giant McCaw to create a new network within the current cellular-telephone system. Those companies and others also hope to make the hardware that consumers will buy. If Ericsson can incite lust in a Yuppie’s heart, Frezza is well on his way to bringing radio communications up from people in uniforms-truckers, field service reps and package-delivery jocks-to people in suits. Some products are already available, but most gizmos of this first generation are too daunting for any but true technophiles (or “propeller heads,” as they’re known in the industry). When the idea catches on, “it’s going to be like this starlet who gets discovered,” says Jeff Morris, who works at Motorola, “but you’ll find out that she’s been beating her brains out for years.”
The companies building the networks aren’t the only ones hoping to cash in. Computer-hardware companies, looking to inject new life into an industry scarred by price wars, are also looking forward to the new radio days. Apple Computer plans to roll out its much-ballyhooed Newton line of wireless handheld telecommunicators next year, and computer makers like GRID and NCR are also in the fray. Some of the new gadgets have only been seen in mockups and press kits-“Right now these personal communications devices are in the realm of sketchware,” says Alan Reiter, editor of the Mobile Data Report. But the businesses can sign on to Motorola now, and RAM kicks off in October. Adventurous individual users ought to be able to buy RAM-ready hardware by the end of the year. Whatever the timetable, many industry observers say the rush to wireless is part of a fundamental shift in computing. “Once upon a time our devices were defined by what they computed for us,” says Paul Saffo, a research fellow with the Institute for the Future in Menlo Park, Calif. “Increasingly, our devices are defined by what they are connected to.”
If wireless does boom soon, the likeliest catalyst will be electronic mail. E-mail is, after all, the big factor behind the boom in PC networks, making communication instant and effortless across all levels of a company. But what’s the best way to connect? It’s been possible to hook your laptop up to a cellular phone for a few years now, but users don’t like losing their data when they drive through a tunnel. So the network providers are pushing a different system that breaks up data into “packets” the computer sends with instructions about how to reassemble the pieces.
Of course, any new technology is going to face problems-so far, radio is hard to use and expensive besides. (RAM’s individual messages are cheap-12 cents per 500 characters-but the modem will cost at least $1,000.) Before radio is ready for prime time, the gadgets will have to get a lot friendlier. Today you have to pick a radio company, track down compatible hardware and patch together the right software. Second-generation machines should provide the whole package that helps users figure out the best way to send information-which wireless network is available, or whether it would be better to use a standard telephone line-and then send it. (Motorola’s modem is a promising first step: it can speak several radio “languages,” switching frequencies on the fly.) But no matter how good the systems get, we’ll soon know their dark side. Futurist Saffo compares it to the change in consumer attitudes toward beepers, from status symbol to burden. Early on, “if you wore a beeper you were an arms-control negotiator or a cardiac surgeon. Today it means you’re on an electronic dog leash.”
Ultimately, users will always need to temper their love of gadgetry with a strong measure of common sense. Take Steve Roberts, a traveling wireless guru. Sponsored in part by high-tech corporations, and fulfilling an almost spiritual quest, Roberts pedals around the nation on a large, recumbent bicycle loaded with equipment that he values at some $1.2 million. He can reach out from his bike by cellular phone or computerized pager; he can even bounce messages off a GE satellite from his 30-pound satellite unit. Still, with all those high-tech options, today he’s returned our call from a decidedly low-tech pay phone. “Why should I pay for cellular time?” he asks. He knows what the rest of us will have to learn: that in the future, we’ll not only need to figure out the right thing to say but also the best way to say it.
